Six Nations predictions: Who will win in round three?
Our rugby experts predict who will win in round three of the Six Nations, with England hosting Ireland, Scotland visiting rock-bottom Wales, and France facing Italy.
England v Ireland, Saturday 2.10pm
Lawrence gives hosts balance
Desperate for an immediate response after their Murrayfield nightmare, England have the ammunition for a convincing win. The team looks better balanced, with Ollie Lawrence back at outside centre and Tommy Freeman returning to his natural berth on the wing. Ireland were flat for long periods against Italy in Dublin. Their turmoil at fly-half, with Sam Prendergast left out of the matchday 23 altogether, indicates how far they have fallen over the past 12 months.
Prediction: England 27 Ireland 13
England to edge cagey encounter
It will be tense, it will be cagey – there might even be blood - but I have a feeling that England, desperate for a response after their Murrayfield misery, will deliver – just. That said, Ireland are voracious and nothing stirs the soul like the prospect of a potential victory in south-west London. Not even Edward Bernays, the master of manipulation and persuasion, could convince me to put a bet on either side for this fixture.
Prediction: England 21 Ireland 16
Upset at HQ
This should be close and Ireland will relish in the role of underdogs. I like Sam Prendergast but his confidence is clearly shot and Andy Farrell was correct to drop him. Jack Crowley’s defence is in a different league to that of his No 10 rival and he is by far the steadier hand. This could go either way, but I take the visitors to nick it late on.
Prediction: England 25 Ireland 27
Crowley to star
You can make a convincing case for all three results. It is true Ireland are not hitting the heights they were two or three years ago, but Andy Farrell’s team are neither as bad, nor England as good, as we’ve been led to believe. Certainly in a one-off match, against England, with Crowley starting, and a pack of Lions, Ireland could raise their levels.
Prediction: England 25 Ireland 25
England to scrape dogfight
Batten down the hatches, I don’t think this is going to be a pretty one. Generally after a painful defeat, Steve Borthwick’s team tend to double down on their fundamentals - set piece, physicality and kicking (lots of kicking). Ireland will be equally desperate but have a key vulnerability at the scrum, which should just about give England the edge in a dogfight.
Prediction: England 21 Ireland 18
Irish snatch classic
We could be in for another classic. Ireland have won five of the last six games against England but lost the last one at Twickenham two years ago to a last-gasp Marcus Smith drop goal. Ireland have struggled for form since they provided the bulk of the starting Lions Test side, with question marks over their age profile, but England too have to search for answers after the manner of their Scotland defeat. Andy Farrell has backed his senior men to deliver, and their experience could see them squeeze home but only if they can cope with England’s scrummaging power – and Henry Pollock.
Prediction: England 21 Ireland 22
Wales v Scotland, Saturday 4.40pm
Scots to compound Welsh misery
If Wales are to avoid a third straight shellacking, much depends on them negotiating the first quarter with minimum damage. It is the bleakest predicament, as the swathes of empty seats at the Principality Stadium will doubtless attest. Duhan van Merwe’s return to Scotland’s starting XV, just when it seemed he had fallen out of favour under Gregor Townsend, is intriguing. This is the moment, surely, for the Scots to kick their habit of failing to build on Calcutta Cup triumphs.
Prediction: Wales 15 Scotland 38
Zip and zeal to overwhelm Wales
Wales might be a proverbial being steadily polished but this weekend will surely still be too much for them. Scotland suffered a few casualties in their victory over England last weekend but the visitors will surely still bring too much zip and zeal for their hosts in Cardiff to handle. A losing bonus-point for Wales might end up feeling like a victory.
Prediction: Wales 19 Scotland 30
Scotland keep Triple Crown dream alive
Scotland are always vulnerable after beating England, but regardless of the scale of the emotional hangover, they should still have too much for the Welsh. Steve Tandy made some strange selections, not least dropping Ellis Mee on the wing and bringing in Sam Costelow, despite the fly-half not featuring in the matchday 23 for the first two rounds. Regardless of their historic shortfall in Cardiff, Scotland should comfortably set themselves up for a shot at the Triple Crown.
Prediction: Wales 17 Scotland 35
Wales stay imperfect
Would love to see the dragon awaken from its slumber, but even accounting for the inevitable emotional comedown Scotland will experience after beating England at Murrayfield, I cannot see how they lose to Wales right now.
Prediction: Wales 21 Scotland 32
Embattled Wales to fall short
This is where the lack of a rest week might influence the result. Scotland would desperately want an extra sevens days to recalibrate after the high of regaining the Calcutta Cup and a toll of walking wounded. Still Wales are coming in off a six-day turnaround from an equally bruising defeat by France and might not quite have enough to get over the line here.
Prediction: Wales 20 Scotland 27
Maximum points for Scotland
Scotland’s challenge is to be able to reach the same emotional peak as they did against England. Against a struggling Wales side, that will be a challenge, but I expect them to get the job done with a bonus-point win but in the face of more stout resistance from Steve Tandy’s side.
Prediction: Wales 12 Scotland 32
France v Italy, Sunday 3.10pm
High-scoring thriller
With France at their symphonic best and Italy hitting their finest form since becoming the tournament’s sixth nation, it promises to be a feast for the senses in Lille. The Azzurri are unrecognisable from the makeweights of recent years, with their set piece shored up and Paolo Garbisi and Tommaso Menoncello merrily creating mayhem. But with Antoine Dupont and Mathieu Jalibert as France’s creative heart, the hosts should still have too much in a high-scoring contest.
Prediction: France 42 Italy 31
Azzurri will miss Brex
These fixtures often provide the championship’s most dramatic moments but high-flying France will surely have too much for the improving Italy. The Azzurri will welcome back Martin Page-Relo at scrum-half and Ange Capuozzo in the back three but their lynchpin, Juan-Ignacio Brex, remains sidelined for family reasons. The centre was a big loss in Dublin and he will be a big loss in Lille, too, against a flowing French back line on cloud nine after their joyous, free-spirited victory in Cardiff.
Prediction: France 42 Italy 25
Terrifying France march on
This could be a high-scoring joy to watch, with two back lines ready to fill the 80 minutes with a spirit of adventure. The Lille crowd will be lively and despite the draw played out between these two nations at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy two years ago, should provide a rousing backdrop to France’s multifaceted assault on this Championship. Fabien Galthie’s strength in depth borders on the terrifying.
Prediction: France 52 Italy 25
‘Les Bleus are simply irresistible’
I was seriously impressed by Italy in Dublin last weekend. And it’s great to see Capuozzo back – a player who might have graced this France team in another life. But Les Bleus are simply irresistible at the moment.
Prediction: France 42 Italy 18
French feast in Lille
Italy are by far the most improved team in the Championship from last year but this feels a foreboding trip despite coming within a slipped kick of a victory in this fixture two years ago. France are by far the most impressive team in Europe and perhaps their only real danger is that they get caught playing with their food in Lille.
Prediction: France 40 Italy 21
France remain on course for Slam
If France are the stand bearers so far, then Italy have been the most improved side. They backed up their victory over Scotland in Dublin, where they could easily have come away with a draw or more. They have the set piece to trouble France, and the daring to attack the edges. But France to remain on course for the Grand Slam.
Prediction: France 25 Italy 20
