Get ready for a rollercoaster ride in the 2026 NRL season—it’s shaping up to be one of the most fiercely competitive years we’ve seen in ages. With multiple teams gunning for the premiership, every inch of the field will be contested like never before. But here’s where it gets controversial: history tells us there’s always at least one surprise waiting to shake things up. The question is, who will it be this time, and where will it come from?**
Let’s dive deep into what the past two decades have taught us about predicting the premiership winner, the makeup of the top eight, and whether last year’s underdogs can make a dramatic comeback. We’ll break it down into key categories, starting with the ever-shifting top eight.
Top Eight Turnover: Expect the Unexpected
Since 2000, the top eight has seen at least two new teams enter the fray every season—except for 2002, which had just one. The last four seasons? Three changes each. Last year alone, Canberra (9th) and Brisbane (12th) stormed in from outside the top eight, with Brisbane eventually lifting the trophy. The Warriors, who missed the finals in 2024, also made a strong push for the top four. Meanwhile, Newcastle, North Queensland, and Manly dropped out.
This year, history suggests we’ll see at least two new faces in the top eight. The Dolphins are the hot pick to make the leap, but don’t count out Wayne Bennett’s Rabbitohs. And what about the Sea Eagles? Can they find the consistency to claw their way back? Only time will tell.
The Wooden Spoon: A Hard Place to Escape
For the past 14 years, the wooden spoon has shown a surprising level of consistency. Three clubs—Newcastle (4), Parramatta (3), and Wests Tigers (3)—have claimed it 10 times between them. Back-to-back wooden spoons are common, highlighting just how tough it is to climb out of the cellar.
Here’s a sobering fact: only four teams this century have gone from last place to the finals in a single season. Three of those cases come with asterisks—the Bulldogs (2003), Storm (2010), and Sharks (2015)—due to unusual circumstances like point deductions or player suspensions. So, while the Knights under Justin Holbrook will be eager to rebound, history suggests it’s an uphill battle.
But here’s a glimmer of hope: at least one team from the bottom four has climbed into the top six in six of the last eight seasons. Last year, two teams managed it. Of 2025’s bottom four—Knights, Titans, Rabbitohs, and Dragons—the Rabbitohs look like the strongest bet to make a leap this year.
Premiers: Where Will the Glory Land?
Only four premiers this century have come from outside the top eight: the Panthers (2003), Tigers (2005), Roosters (2013), and last year’s Broncos. Strong teams tend to stay in contention, with 17 of the 26 premiers this century finishing in the top four the previous season. Even more striking? Eight of the last nine premiers finished in the top two and reached at least the preliminary final the year before.
The Broncos’ fall from grace in 2024 had its reasons—the mental toll of their Grand Final loss, coaching changes, and the poorly timed Vegas trip. But this year, the smart money is on the Broncos, Raiders, Storm, and Bulldogs to contend. Don’t sleep on the Panthers and Roosters, though—they’ll have something to say about that.
And this is the part most people miss: while the top teams dominate the conversation, history guarantees at least two changes to the top eight and one surprise team rising from the lower ranks. Who will it be this year? That’s the million-dollar question.
Controversial Take: Could the Wooden Spoon Hold the Key?
Here’s a thought: what if the team that finishes last this year is the one to watch in 2027? It’s happened before, and with the right moves, it could happen again. Do you think a current underdog could pull off a miraculous turnaround? Let us know in the comments—we’d love to hear your take!
As you gear up for the season, don’t miss the FREE Zero Tackle 2026 NRL Season Guide! Packed with 130+ pages of player profiles, team previews, and expert analysis, it’s the ultimate companion for any NRL fan. Download it here and get the full picture.
